1988 (65,351,voters)SDP Team consisting of Mohd Jufrie, Neo Choon Aik and Seow Chuan Hock managed to garner about 43.67% of the votes.
1997 (103,466,voters)SDP Team consisting of Aziz Ibrahim, Kwan Yue Keng, S. Kunalen, Tay Hoon and Wong Hong Toy managed to garner 32.98% of the votes.
From the above two results, there are at least 30% Hardcore Opposition voters. These voters are real hardcore who will even vote a Dog standing as an opposition candidate. However, the incumbent PAP team is strong and anchored by Foreign Minister George Yeo. The PAP is not resting on its laurel, it had strengthened its team by transferring Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, its Women Wing head (the highest ranking woman in the current government) from the “pau jiak” Marine Parade GRC. This maybe a direct response to Ms Sylvia Lim, the Chairman of the Workers Party who is leading the opposition GRC team in this ward.
My strong (read kiasu) feeling is the incumbent will win but election is never an absolute science…
What are the factors that may tilt the balance?
1. The Sylvia Lim effect
could sway the young women voters and more young male voters with her charm, eloquence and confidence
2. The James Gomez saga
PAP sustained effort to discredit him may mobilise the sympathy vote to WP
Young voters who are exposed to un-biased news reports and without the historical baggage may want an alternative voice in parliment
5. Stronger & Credible Opposition
Workers Party has been consistent and organized in this election. WP fielded their A-Team and voters may want to give the WP a try
6. The Low Thia Kang Effect
Mr Low sure knows how to work and connect with the ground. His rallies are unlike rock concert with standing room only and causes traffic jam 5 km away
7. Bread and Butter Issues
People have short memories but not as short as to forget the recent price hikes and the high costs of living in Singapore
8. 30% Hard Core Opposition Supporters
Compared to the national average of 20%, WP works from a higher base and theoretically an easier task to upsurp the incumbent
9. PAP's joke turned bad
PAP branding of the WP as the "wayang party" in the Gomez's sage may backfired. People may just vote the WP in to provide some entertainment in the serious business of government